ICF13B

13th International Conference on Fracture June 16–21, 2013, Beijing, China -1- On Incorrectness in Elastic Rebound Theory for Cause of Earthquakes Zhong-qi Quentin Yue1,* 1 Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China * Corresponding author: yueqzq@hku.hk Abstract The elastic rebound theory was developed 100 years ago from the observations of co-seismic surface ruptures induced by the 1906 California Earthquake. It is only partially correct because it associates earthquakes with geological faults. However, it is inconsistent and even violates many other phenomena that were present before, during and after earthquakes. Numerous failures have been encountered and experienced in the tremendous efforts using the elastic rebound theory in the prediction of earthquakes over the past 100 years. Many current seismo-geologist and seismologists have lost their original goals to predict earthquakes and turned to believe that earthquakes are unpredictable with present techniques. All these problems are due to the fact that the incorrect elastic rebound theory for cause of earthquakes was used in the investigation and prediction of earthquakes. The paper also shows that the energy released during earthquake is not the elastic stress and strain energy accumulated in brittle crustal rock solids during relative movements of tectonic plates. The released energy is the volumetric expansion energy of highly compressed and dense natural gas rapidly escaped from its deep crustal traps via fault channels. This gas hypothesis for the cause of earthquakes would make earthquake predicable in the near future. Keywords Earthquake, Energy, Fault, Heat, Natural Gas 1. Introduction Earthquake occurs every day. Seismologists have developed and used seismometers to report the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes within minutes of their occurrence. But, they cannot predict earthquakes. Earthquake prediction is to predict where and when the next damaging earthquake will occur and what will be its magnitude. For last hundred and thousand years, earthquakes have frequently hit us without notice and wreaked terrible disasters and numerous fatalities. In addition, there were many false prediction cases and only a few successful prediction cases. Due to numerous failure cases, seismologists have reached a consensus that the next strong earthquake can NOT be predicted. For example, Chen and Wang [1] wrote, “Few seismologists believe that it is presently possible or forever impossible to predict an earthquake with the time, location, and size specified accurately enough to guide plans for evacuation. Regardless of its scientific merit and future development, governments of most industrial countries consider earthquake prediction to be presently impractical.” Hough [2] also wrote, “Are earthquake predicable? The title of this book implies an answer and suggests a paradox. We cannot say it will always be the case, but, given the state of earthquake science at the present time, earthquakes are unpredictable.” Therefore, the following issue must be asked and addressed: Why are the next damaging earthquakes unpredictable? In this paper, the author tries to point out the core reason for this earthquake unpredictability issue. The core reason is the inadequacy of the existing theory in explaining the cause of earthquakes. It is the elastic rebound theory developed one hundred years ago in 1910 [3, 4]. It has been regarded as “one of the most fundamental tenets of earthquake science” [2]. The prediction efforts over the last one hundred years have been based on the incorrect cause theory of tectonic earthquakes. Hence, a majority of their results have been unsatisfactory. Furthermore, the theory of plate tectonics, developed in later 1950s and early 1960s, used this elastic rebound theory as one of the foundations. On the other hand, the plate tectonic theory gives the reasons why and how the elastic stress can be built up in crustal fault rocks for cause of earthquakes associated with the elastic rebound theory [5].

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