13th International Conference on Fracture June 16–21, 2013, Beijing, China -9- extremely high pressure drops in front of the moving gas mass, the gas migration speed in the fault zone can be several km/s. The interaction is instantaneous and flashing. It can be complete within few to tens and to hundreds seconds. The gas expansion and migration are confined and constrained by the inward gravity, the tectonic stresses and the rigidness and strengths of the crustal rocks. The energy of earth quaking is mainly the physical expansion energy of the highly compressed methane gas. The gas expansion is a cooling process, which reduces the temperatures of ground rocks and soils and air during and immediately after the shock. All the earthquake phenomena can be logically and consistently explained and predicted with the gas hypothesis. Specially, the broken permafrost soils and ices along the 426 km long surface rupture zone in south slope of Kunlun Mountains could keep sharp, angular and fresh immediately after the earthquake on November 14, 2001. 6. Concluding Remarks The author would like to recall the four rules of reasoning in philosophical inquiries of nature summarized by Sir Isaac Newton about 300 years ago [20]. • RULE I. We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances. • RULE II. Therefore to the same natural effects we must, as far as possible, assign the same causes. • RULE III. The qualities of bodies, which admit neither intensification nor remission of degrees, and which are found to belong to all bodies within the reach of our experiments, are to be esteemed the universal qualities of all bodies whatsoever. • RULE IV. In experimental philosophy we are to look, upon propositions inferred by general induction from phenomena as accurately or very nearly true, notwithstanding any contrary hypotheses that may be imagined, till such time as other phenomena occur, by which they may either be made more accurate, or liable to exceptions. We may have to follow these four rules in our scientific inquiry of the nature of earthquakes. The elastic rebound theory was developed one hundreds year ago from the observations of co-seismic surface ruptures induced by the 1906 California Earthquake. It is only partially correct because it associates earthquakes with faults. It is inconsistent and even violates many other phenomena that were present before, during and after earthquakes. Numerous failures have been encountered and experienced in our tremendous efforts using the elastic rebound theory in the prediction of earthquakes. Many current seismo-geologist and seismologists have lost their original goals to predict earthquakes and turned to believe that earthquakes are unpredictable with the present techniques. All these problems are due to the fact that the incorrect elastic rebound theory for the cause of earthquakes was used in the investigation and prediction of earthquakes. It is evident that the energy released during earthquake is not the elastic stress and strain energy accumulated in brittle crustal rock solids during relative movements of tectonic plates. The released energy is the volumetric expansion energy of highly compressed and dense natural (methane) gas. The gas rapidly escaped from its deep crustal traps and was migrating via deep faults into shallow grounds and the sky. The author trusts that this gas hypothesis for the cause of earthquakes would make earthquake predicable in the near future. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank many friends and colleagues for their invaluable advices, assistances, discussions, information, data and supports during his independent investigations of the nature of
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